From the last time I posted We have seemingly broke lower and with some force invalidating primary idea stated. The break of $8420 was the signal that our secondary bearish idea was now the idea we were trading. Now that we have bounced from 6.5K and have been somewhat ranged bound what is next for $BTC. As the title states, is #bitcoin in a X wave or an impulse? Only time will tell the future at this point BUT as time progresses and as we fall further the chances of a valid X wave become more and more likely. EVEN with this idea we can still find a very valid trade set up based on the fact that we have made a 5 wave move from the lows that's 100% valid. We also have seemed to chop around from range extremes and the action held within the confined of this range have been corrective IMO. To aid our idea we have also seemed to have what I would label a mini #ALT season as many altcoins have returned GREAT numbers over the time $BTC has been range bound. If you look around Tradingview you also see a GREAT number of posts short due to the imbalance of longs to shorts. I agree there longs will be punished but they are pulling the trigger too soon. The whales have more games to play, and that is to suck in the last hopeful bears to flip there idea before sending it back down into depths below 6k. So with that I am looking for a "Sister" move to follow sometime in the near future. If we are to find this low as the bottom and have a D1 or a few D1 closes over the .68 retrace @$6953.07 I will learn more BULLISH on the idea. Making this the low here @$6887 will cause this idea to possibly turn into the impulse and not an X wave. Breaking below the last low IMO will open the doors to the running flat idea seen here as well and thus enhance the chances of the X wave. Breaking below the lows at 6.5K will cause the X wave to have a 75%-80% chance of being true. Breaking the purple line is allowed on low volume but must not be closes out of range of the DCB retrace between $6195 & $6000. Doing so will cause me to throw this entire idea out altogether and revert to new primary.
As of now I am looking for a buying opportunity to present itself. I want a close above the .68 as discussed and a break of the B to B TL seen there too. A break and consolidation above will make me enter LONG and target at least a 1:1 of green A @$8172. If price slides lower I will long the DCB zone below as it will be the most extreme of a valid flat and the R:R is really great at that point. The 100% outright bullish point will be closing 2-3 D1 candles over the W1 open. Remember to always practice good R:R/money management skills by never over leveraging, positioning yourself, or not setting a stop. If you have any questions or concerns please shoot me a message here or on Discord. Cheers!