In the last post I saw $BTC getting ready for a break to 10K and maybe then some.
On May 7th BTC was able to hit a high of 10.1k but was short lived as the bears stepped in and caused $BTC to plummet nearly 20% in which one single hourly candle accounted for 15%! Talk about volatility, fortunately for premium members I was able to get us on the right side of the trade after I saw weakness in the market structure. The falls velocity seemed like we were heading for 7k but the bulls stepped in hard in the low 8k and have since then made a very clear line of support at 8.7k. As we stand nearly a month later from the last post a very clear range has been established on the D1 time frame. The highs are just over 10.1k with the lows at 8.1k making this a 2K range! With the volatility and a massive range it has been a day traders paradise but I have a feeling the swing traders will get their turn very soon.
In terms of technical analysis the EW market structure that has been established from the highs in April till now have stayed in tact. So as long as we sustain levels above the dynamic support of 8.7k I must assume we see price above 10K in the month of June. If price can find a way to get 2-3 D1 closes above the upper pivot of 9.7k I think that will confirm this idea before ultimate expansion. Buying now is risky as PA just made a run up to range highs and can see another retrace to range lows and still hold this idea. The best way to trade this if you are a swing trader is to look for D1 closes above the upper pivot or wait for a retest of the lows and as long as 8.7 is held it should be a BTD opportunity. If this move does happen I do believe it will be our “blow off top” and the retrace to happen after will be significant. So don’t be greedy searching for ATH cause that is being very unrealistic. Everything up to this point has been following my projected path I portrayed shortly after Black Friday in March.
On the flip side this entire bull “pennant” that is forming can be terminal and thrust DOWN instead of up once its all said and done. There is no real way to tell minus being able to measure time and have an idea of when things should complete. I have my eyes set on a date and its coming closer and closer so I’m expecting judgment day to be soon.
The wave count is rough I will admit but I don’t care too much for exact labeling all I care about is interpretation of the corrective phases to impulsive phases. It is very obvious we made 3 wave advance from the lows thus far. Whether or not it is of a 5 wave impulse or something more like a WXY combo and we are in X wave somewhere gearing up for Y is left to your imagination. Both ideas will end with the same results and basically same entry criteria.
The monthly close is today as well and can cause for some intraday volatility around the level it closes at. Closing like this that would be moderately bullish as it is above the previous and just above the M1 resistance level of 9350. Volume also is up from prior candles so this indicates to me that there is a lot of interest in this level and can be seen as more of an accumulation phase rather than distribution. Another key argument for the bullish idea is the fact that a lot of $BTC has left exchanges. So much that exchange holdings of $BTC are at all time lows. I think a lot of players are pulling cash off the exchanges in hopes of capturing in on $BTC gains without fear of exit scams or government interference. Signs are pointing up but we must always be weary of both sides and understand the downside to our idea.
Make sure do be safe out there if you are in the states and also still listen to health officials regarding the corona virus. Also make sure if you are participating in market action you are doing so responsibly and with the understanding of the risks involved. Always use a protective stop and remember to have a plan, then trade it.